Conservative pundits hate Nate Silver, but rhetoric as the election proved, is no match for science. And polling is a science and Silver nailed it. He has changed the optic on how we take the pulse of our politics and the whens and hows of measurement. Basically, its difficult to defeat the incumbent and the war chest was too huge to overcome. But the election did expose, extraneous to the Silver polling, that there are very different philosophies at work in America and that neither group is standing up to the standards one would associate with each style whether the liberal or the conservative. The former are moving towards a kind of slippery slope of some variant of socialism and hard core leftism while the madness of the conservatives is reaching out to grab the paw of fascism at its fringes.
The old differentiators between power and control driven perceptions and profiles of the party affiliation has been muddied by opportunism and absence of patriotism. The two parties have failed the electorate mightily and the best solution may be to implode the two and create new ones from scratch where we know liberals run one and conservatives the other; as it is, the nation is a goner and despite some cosmetic nuances between them, an election is akin to selecting between two brands of breakfast cereal when the electorate is holding deep-seated and profound differences regarding political vision….
The tendency of the one to speak up and the other to be silent starts off a spiraling process which increasingly establishes one opinion as the dominant one. Over time, these changing perceptions establish one opinion as predominant one and they change from the liquid state to a solid norm.
–The Spiral of Silence, Wikipedia.
( see link at end)…Each election is the same; each, and every election is different.
People of “good math and statistics” are simply trying to gander, gauge, and guess an intent of voters while another set seeks non-math certitude.
Cut the psephological Nate Silvers of the world some major Gaussian slack. They took the courses you couldn’t cut.
The stat crew is getting drowned by the certitude of the second-rate. Call it the spiral of certitude. Read More:http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-11-05/the-spiral-of-certitude
(see link at end)…Our early patriots were willing to risk life and limb… provided they controlled the risks taken (a trait among all Actives… the reason in 2012 the Obama Administration is unable to get new jobs created; he wants to dictate the risks independent business owners will take.. and they want none of it)…
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